Econometric Modeling vs Artificial Neural Networks: A Sales Forecasting Comparison
2011 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year))
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
Econometric and predictive modeling techniques are two popular forecasting techniques. Both of
these techniques have their own advantages and disadvantages. In this thesis some econometric
models are considered and compared to predictive models using sales data for five products from
ICA a Swedish retail wholesaler. The econometric models considered are regression model,
exponential smoothing, and ARIMA model. The predictive models considered are artificial
neural network (ANN) and ensemble of neural networks. Evaluation metrics used for the
comparison are: MAPE, WMAPE, MAE, RMSE, and linear correlation. The result of this thesis
shows that artificial neural network is more accurate in forecasting sales of product. But it does
not differ too much from linear regression in terms of accuracy. Therefore the linear regression
model which has the advantage of being comprehensible can be used as an alternative to artificial
neural network. The results also show that the use of several metrics contribute in evaluating
models for forecasting sales.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
University of Borås/School of Business and Informatics , 2011.
Series
Magisteruppsats ; 2010MI17
Keywords [en]
econometrics, forecasting, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, regression, neural network, ensemble, WMAPE, MAPE, MAE, RMSE, linear correlation
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-20400Local ID: 2320/7986OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hb-20400DiVA, id: diva2:1312334
Note
Program: Magisterutbildning i informatik
2019-04-302019-04-302025-09-24