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Hourly Heat Load Prediction for District Heating Substations Using Federated Learning with Flower Framework: An Evaluation Study
University of Borås, Faculty of Librarianship, Information, Education and IT.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This thesis investigates the feasibility of federated learning (FL) for short-horizon prediction of district-heating substation heat demand from time­series data. Traditional centralized approaches require aggregating multi-dimensional meter readings from all substations into one central database. This consolidation strategy introduces practical constraints concerning data governance requirements, transmission bandwidth limitations, and operational scalability across autonomously managed facilities. Addressing these constraints, this study deploys a distributed learning architecture where individual substations maintain exclusive access to local operational data while contributing parameter updates to a central coordination node for model synthesis. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) serves as the base learner and is trained on hourly sequences derived from substation measurements (kWh and m3/h). The federated approach is implemented using the Flower framework, and two aggregation strategies-Federated Averaging (FedAvg) and adaptive federated optimization (FedAdam)-are evaluated over multiple communication rounds. Performance is assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) on each client's test set, enabling a client-level analysis of convergence and generalization under heterogeneous data distributions. The results indicate that the aggregated global model generally achieves lower MAE than the corresponding client models trained locally in each round, demonstrating the benefit of collaborative learning across substations without pooling raw data. The choice of aggregation strategy affects both convergence and stability: FedAdam provides faster early round improvement and more stable performance across clients in several rounds, whereas FedAvg is more sensitive to client heterogeneity and exhibits larger fluctuations in later rounds. Overall, the study supports FL as a practical approach for distributed substation forecasting and highlights the importance of aggregation strategy and training configuration when deploying FL in real-world district heating settings. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
Keywords [en]
District Heating, Heat load, Prediction, Evaluation, Multi-layer Perceptron, Federated Learning, FedAdam, FedAvg
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-35575OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hb-35575DiVA, id: diva2:2056123
Subject / course
Informatics
Available from: 2026-04-28 Created: 2026-04-28 Last updated: 2026-04-28Bibliographically approved

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2025MAGI09(5416 kB)13 downloads
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e8b31fc85e7a85c2a555096893c63ac098e7a9f5962e4d3bf5a05b458969f4bc2e6d683314e0ce9f08e027987d2d306dc36d9ffa324a25c8e81a6a1314c4e077
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

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1617181920212219 of 49
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Citation style
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Language
  • de-DE
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Output format
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