Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Rule Extraction using Genetic Programming for Accurate Sales Forecasting
University of Borås, School of Business and IT. (CSL@BS)
University of Borås, School of Business and IT. (CSL@BS)
2014 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to propose and evaluate a method for reducing the inherent tendency of genetic programming to overfit small and noisy data sets. In addition, the use of different optimization criteria for symbolic regression is demonstrated. The key idea is to reduce the risk of overfitting noise in the training data by introducing an intermediate predictive model in the process. More specifically, instead of directly evolving a genetic regression model based on labeled training data, the first step is to generate a highly accurate ensemble model. Since ensembles are very robust, the resulting predictions will contain less noise than the original data set. In the second step, an interpretable model is evolved, using the ensemble predictions, instead of the true labels, as the target variable. Experiments on 175 sales forecasting data sets, from one of Sweden’s largest wholesale companies, show that the proposed technique obtained significantly better predictive performance, compared to both straightforward use of genetic programming and the standard M5P technique. Naturally, the level of improvement depends critically on the performance of the intermediate ensemble.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE , 2014.
Keywords [en]
Genetic programming, Rule extraction, Overfitting, Regression, Sales forecasting, Machine learning, Data mining
National Category
Computer Sciences Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-7320Local ID: 2320/14624ISBN: 978-1-4799-4518-4/14 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hb-7320DiVA, id: diva2:888033
Conference
5th IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Data Mining (CIDM 2014), 9-12 december, Orlando, FL, USA
Note

Sponsorship:

This work was supported by the Swedish Retail and Wholesale Development

Council through the project Innovative Business Intelligence Tools (2013:5).

Available from: 2015-12-22 Created: 2015-12-22 Last updated: 2018-01-10

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1075 kB)498 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1075 kBChecksum SHA-512
9823e6e1ebf2388dcb9241386ba361c9ee2174abdf894b8a349b69a456ac9fa64f8db281aa9f6d8ae3570206a75f296b7f82ebc8b507a5acb9eee6eb92c78d4d
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Authority records

König, RikardJohansson, Ulf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
König, RikardJohansson, Ulf
By organisation
School of Business and IT
Computer SciencesComputer and Information Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 498 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 278 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • harvard-cite-them-right
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf