This paper suggests a modification of the Conformal Prediction framework for regression that will strengthen the associated guarantee of validity. We motivate the need for this modification and argue that our conformal regressors are more closely tied to the actual error distribution of the underlying model, thus allowing for more natural interpretations of the prediction intervals. In the experimentation, we provide an empirical comparison of our conformal regressors to traditional conformal regressors and show that the proposed modification results in more robust two-tailed predictions, and more efficient one-tailed predictions.
Sponsorship:
Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research through the project High-Performance Data Mining for Drug Effect Detection (IIS11-0053) and the Knowledge Foundation through the project Big Data Analytics by Online Ensemble Learning (20120192).