Effective Utilization of Data in Inductive Conformal Prediction
2013 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
Conformal prediction is a new framework producing
region predictions with a guaranteed error rate. Inductive
conformal prediction (ICP) was designed to significantly reduce
the computational cost associated with the original transductive
online approach. The drawback of inductive conformal prediction
is that it is not possible to use all data for training, since it
sets aside some data as a separate calibration set. Recently,
cross-conformal prediction (CCP) and bootstrap conformal
prediction (BCP) were proposed to overcome that drawback of
inductive conformal prediction. Unfortunately, CCP and BCP
both need to build several models for the calibration, making
them less attractive. In this study, focusing on bagged neural
network ensembles as conformal predictors, ICP, CCP and BCP
are compared to the very straightforward and cost-effective
method of using the out-of-bag estimates for the necessary
calibration. Experiments on 34 publicly available data sets
conclusively show that the use of out-of-bag estimates produced
the most efficient conformal predictors, making it the obvious
preferred choice for ensembles in the conformal prediction
framework.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE , 2013.
Keywords [en]
Data mining, Machine Learning
National Category
Computer Sciences Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-7058Local ID: 2320/12923OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hb-7058DiVA, id: diva2:887765
Conference
International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, Dallas, TX, USA, August 4-9, 2013.
Note
Sponsorship:
Swedish Foundation for Strategic
Research through the project High-Performance Data Mining for Drug Effect
Detection (IIS11-0053) and the Knowledge Foundation through the project
Big Data Analytics by Online Ensemble Learning (20120192)
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