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Efficient conformal predictor ensembles
University of Borås, Faculty of Librarianship, Information, Education and IT.
Department of Computer Science and Informatics, Jönköping University, Sweden.
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
2020 (English)In: Neurocomputing, ISSN 0925-2312, E-ISSN 1872-8286, Vol. 397, p. 266-278Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we study a generalization of a recently developed strategy for generating conformal predictor ensembles: out-of-bag calibration. The ensemble strategy is evaluated, both theoretically and empirically, against a commonly used alternative ensemble strategy, bootstrap conformal prediction, as well as common non-ensemble strategies. A thorough analysis is provided of out-of-bag calibration, with respect to theoretical validity, empirical validity (error rate), efficiency (prediction region size) and p-value stability (the degree of variance observed over multiple predictions for the same object). Empirical results show that out-of-bag calibration displays favorable characteristics with regard to these criteria, and we propose that out-of-bag calibration be adopted as a standard method for constructing conformal predictor ensembles. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2020. Vol. 397, p. 266-278
Keywords [en]
Conformal prediction, Classification, Ensembles
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-24829DOI: 10.1016/j.neucom.2019.07.113ISI: 000535918300010Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85076549331OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hb-24829DiVA, id: diva2:1521785
Available from: 2021-01-25 Created: 2021-01-25 Last updated: 2021-10-21Bibliographically approved

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Linnusson, Henrik

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